The Stoic Observer's VZ Reference
In depth analysis references
I have compiled a Venezuela reference guide that includes over 30 documents from a variety of sources I find credible and interesting. I’ve been busy over the past few days and with the assistance of my newer AI skills put together several versions. Have at it.
As you may guess, I am pleased with the bold move which I believe fits into a coherent foreign policy which may or may not develop consistently under the current administration. Basically a lot of what I think can be summarized thusly:
I’m happy to stipulate the move is technically illegal by a broad number of conventions standing in for coherent, consistent major power governance. Ever since the refusal of Congress to do anything fundamentally different with regard to asymmetrical warfare and non-state actors IE drug cartels and Hezbollah-like organizations on the world stage, we are stuck talking like it’s 1999.
In other words, the world has hacked the UN Security Council and the Geneva Conventions. They are useless. They are the pre-cellphone Old World Order. The only thing that seems to work to settle such matters are exactly world wars. It’s how our forces are structured, etc.
They guys who knew better, like General David Petraeus, who basically authored everything the world knows about counter-insurgency, has remained only in military thinking, NOT congressional thinking.
Same thing with Judge Posner vis a vis terror-courts. The end result is that we do stuff that would be proper and probably more clearly legal for the DEA and FBI and it gets mixed up into geopolitical contexts. Some of the people below make those cases in the appropriate legal-speak.
It’s the geopolitical context which, in a week or two, will become more clear. And my guess is the Marco Rubio knows all of this and has for some time.
As a Stoic, I will constantly engage ideas and actions that update my picture of the world, but I discount and disengage with wishful thinking. I think there is a significant difference between philosophical consistency and ideological partisanship. I’m not looking for hills to die on.
Venezuela Reference Document (RefDocS3)
Generated from S3 bucket content - 35 documents
Document Abstracts
A Drug War Goes Hot
Date: October 21, 2025
Summary: CDR Salamander examines the escalating U.S. military strikes against drug boats in the Caribbean, focusing on Tren de Aragua operations. With over 1 million Americans dead from drug overdoses this century, the author argues these strikes are legally, ethically, and morally justified against designated terrorist organizations. The piece details the technical differences between drug-running “go-fast” boats and legitimate fishing vessels, defending the military action as necessary given the failure of previous counter-narcotics policies and the direct threat to American lives.
Alternates to Maduro
Date: January 5, 2026
Summary: Johnny Graterol Guevara’s Facebook post analyzes the shifting power dynamics in Venezuela following Maduro’s removal. The theory suggests power was originally divided among four poles (Maduro/Cilia Flores, Diosdado Cabello, Vladimir Padrino López, and the Rodríguez siblings) but reduced to three after January 3, 2026. The analysis claims the U.S. negotiated with Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez to lead the transition, bypassing other unreliable factions. This strategic gamble puts Delcy in a precarious position between U.S. pressure and internal regime threats.
American conservatives claim the failure of the Venezuelan economy is due to socialism. How valid is this claim?
Date: November 6, 2025
Summary: Michael David Cobb Bowen’s Quora answer analyzing Venezuela’s economic collapse. He argues the failure wasn’t solely due to socialism but to government subsidies of gasoline (5 cents/gallon) that became unsustainable when oil prices dropped from $115 to $53/barrel in 2015. Chavez fired 20,000 striking oil workers, replaced PDVSA executives with cronies, and relied on oil exports during peak prices. When the party ended, gasoline price increases caused inflation, leading to money printing and economic disaster that triggered mass emigration and brain drain.
April 2018 Airstrikes Against Syrian Chemical-Weapons Facilities
Date: April 2018
Summary: A brief document referencing a Justice Department legal opinion file about the April 2018 airstrikes against Syrian chemical weapons facilities. The document contains only a PDF attachment reference, likely providing legal justification for military action against chemical weapons infrastructure in Syria as precedent for understanding international law applications in military interventions.
China is Furious
Date: January 4, 2026
Summary: Ken Cao’s Twitter thread analyzing China’s reaction to the U.S. operation in Venezuela. He argues this was a strategic defeat for Beijing, dismantling China’s foothold in South America and voiding oil and loan contracts overnight. The thread emphasizes how the U.S. demonstrated real power application versus China’s diplomatic statements, showing the difference between issuing statements and moving military assets. The operation effectively enforced the Monroe Doctrine and revealed the limitations of Chinese weapons systems under pressure.
Edmundo González Urrutia
Date: January 4, 2026
Summary: Carlos Hugo Fernández-Roca Suárez’s legal analysis defending the U.S. military operation in Venezuela. He argues that Maduro’s illegitimate hold on power after the July 2024 elections, combined with international recognition of González Urrutia as the elected president, removes legal protections under international law. The analysis cites Maduro’s narcoterrorism indictment, systematic human rights violations, and the responsibility to protect (R2P) doctrine as additional legal justifications. The thread includes counterarguments questioning unilateral force and concerns about setting dangerous precedents.
How a Man Convicted of Running a Latin American Narco State Landed a Pardon
Date: December 3, 2025
Summary: Wall Street Journal investigation into Trump’s pardon of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who was serving 45 years for cocaine trafficking. The pardon resulted from lobbying by Trump allies including Roger Stone and Matt Gaetz, who portrayed Hernández as a victim of Biden-era “lawfare.” The case involved conspiracies to ship 400 tons of cocaine to the U.S. and taking millions in bribes. The timing coincided with Honduras elections, raising questions about election interference and conflicting with Trump’s anti-drug agenda.
Hugo Chavez’s economic miracle
Date: March 6, 2013
Summary: David Sirota’s Salon article defending Chavez’s economic record despite his human rights issues. During Chavez’s first decade, Venezuelan GDP more than doubled, infant mortality and unemployment nearly halved, and poverty plummeted from 23.4% to 8.5%, giving Venezuela the third-lowest poverty rate in Latin America. College enrollment doubled and millions gained healthcare access. Sirota argues Chavez became a political weapon in American discourse because his socialist success challenged neoliberal economics, making him a threat to global corporate capitalism rather than just a harmless cautionary tale.
International Drug Cartel
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Twitter thread by @peppipets defending the U.S. military action against Maduro. The author argues there were no alternatives left after failed elections (fraudulent), protests (met with tanks), and diplomatic appeals. With 95% of Venezuela in extreme poverty and 8 million refugees, military force was inevitable. The thread emphasizes Maduro leads an international drug cartel, with critics like Glenn Greenwald questioning why Brazil didn’t act first. The exchange highlights debates about sovereignty versus humanitarian intervention, with supporters arguing critics enable continued suffering.
Invoice of Power
Date: January 4, 2026
Summary: @infantrydort’s provocative Twitter thread defending U.S. power projection and the Venezuela operation. The author argues that peace isn’t free but “underwritten” by American military power that others didn’t build or maintain. Critics who invoke sovereignty are accused of being “feminized by safety they did not earn” while cheering mass migration and institutional decay. The thread presents America as structurally powerful like gravity or fire, arguing that power is “rent you pay to exist unmolested in a violent world” and suggesting America is entering a new assertive phase.
Legality of the Arrest
Date: January 4, 2026
Summary: Henrik Dahl’s analysis arguing there has never been a truly “rules-based international order,” only selective compliance when convenient. Among UN Security Council permanent members, only the UK and France consistently respect international law, while the US, Russia, and China ignore rules when they conflict with interests. The difference lies in justification methods: the US uses normative language about human rights, while Russia and China cite spheres of influence. Dahl concludes that rules discipline the weak more than the strong, and Europeans remain dangerously naive about power realities.
Legally Sliding into War
Date: March 15, 2021
Summary: Rebecca Ingber’s analysis of how presidential administrations legally justify expanding conflicts through incremental steps. She examines mechanisms like “unit self-defense” and “associated forces” that allow escalation without congressional authorization. Using al-Shabab as a case study, she shows how legal justifications can gradually lead to full warfare. The essay argues that focusing on legal compliance obscures policy questions and enables presidents to expand wars unilaterally. Executive branch legal interpretations of self-defense, geographic scope, and force authorization create slippery slopes toward unintended conflicts.
On the Legality of the Venezuela Invasion
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Jack Goldsmith’s legal analysis of the Venezuela operation, arguing that while it likely violates the UN Charter, it can be legally justified under domestic law using executive branch precedents. He cites the 1989 Panama invasion and Bill Barr’s opinion authorizing FBI extraterritorial arrests even when violating international law. The operation was framed as a law enforcement action with military support for “unit self-defense.” Goldsmith notes few effective legal constraints exist on presidential war powers, with Congress absent and courts uninvolved, leaving only executive branch precedents as meaningful legal framework.
Operation Absolute Resolve
Date: January 6, 2026
Summary: The Mooch Report’s analysis of the January 3rd Delta Force raid that captured Maduro and his wife at Fort Tiuna in Caracas. No U.S. personnel were killed though some were wounded. The operation raises questions about post-Maduro Venezuela, with Trump announcing plans to “run the country” during transition. The report includes analysis from Antonio Bricio about future scenarios and covers related military developments including new Trump Class battleships and the “Golden Fleet” initiative, positioning the operation within broader strategic restructuring.
Pentagon Turmoil
Date: October 21, 2025
Summary: The Mooch Report covers Pentagon leadership changes, particularly Admiral Alvin Holsey’s resignation from SOUTHCOM after just one year, reportedly due to disagreements with Trump’s anti-narcotics policies and CIA covert actions in Venezuela. The report examines new Pentagon press rules that prompted journalist exodus and speculates whether Holsey’s departure signals broader military leadership resistance to perceived unlawful orders. The analysis connects Pentagon restructuring to escalating Caribbean military operations against drug cartels and concerns about military officers facing “lawful but awful” orders.
PODCAST Venezuela Diagram
Date: December 15, 2025
Summary: Thomas Barnett’s scenario analysis predicting Venezuela intervention using a 2x2 matrix: regime resilience versus external backer leverage. He outlines four scenarios from “Clean Victory Cascade” (Grenada-style) to “Prolonged Coercion Grind” (Iraq-style), with historical analogies and likelihood assessments. Barnett introduces the “Donroe Doctrine” - Monroe Doctrine on steroids - as Trump’s hemispheric strategy. The analysis favors cleaner interventions over grinding occupations, though notes Trump’s “lame duck with impulse disorder” status makes any outcome possible, including the “chicken out” scenario.
Rafael Gumucio
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Chilean writer Rafael Gumucio’s emotional reflection on Maduro’s capture from a leftist perspective. He expresses joy for Venezuelan liberation despite opposing Trump, arguing the left’s reflexive anti-imperialism ignores human suffering. Gumucio criticizes how leftists prioritize sovereignty principles over the actual Venezuelan people who have endured torture, murder, and exodus. He argues that after decades of failed sanctions and diplomacy, military action became the only option, and celebrates with Venezuelans rather than following anti-imperialist doctrine that protects tyrants over their victims.
Recoverable Oil from VZ
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Twitter discussion thread analyzing Venezuela’s oil reserves and their strategic implications. The conversation includes technical details about different crude oil types and questions about the true recoverability of Venezuela’s claimed reserves. Comments debate whether the intervention is truly about oil, with some arguing it’s primarily about expelling China and Russia from the hemisphere. The thread examines the complexities of Venezuelan oil extraction and challenges the simplistic narrative that this is purely a war for oil resources.
Sentiments of (Some) Venezuelans
Date: January 5, 2026
Summary: Powerful firsthand account by Venezuelan Mike Netter (via Stephen Subero) condemning critics of the U.S. intervention. The author lived through Venezuela’s collapse from functioning democracy to socialist disaster, watching families lose everything as nationalization destroyed the economy. He argues that outsiders lecturing about imperialism from comfortable homes lack credibility, while Venezuelans face starvation. The piece emphasizes that China, Russia, and cartels are extracting wealth without rebuilding, while U.S. investment could restore infrastructure, food access, and dignity, even if America profits in the process.
The Fall of Maduro—and the Future of Venezuela. Plus. . .
Date: January 5, 2026
Summary: The Free Press compilation analyzing the Venezuelan operation’s aftermath, featuring multiple expert perspectives. The publication includes legal analysis by Jed Rubenfeld on the operation’s constitutionality, Elliott Abrams’ concerns about working with remaining regime elements, and Elliot Ackerman’s warnings about Iraq-style mission creep. Historian Niall Ferguson provides historical context dating to 1900, while Venezuelan torture survivor Nelson Merino shares his imprisonment experiences. The piece covers Venezuelan-American reactions in Miami and New York, questioning whether beneficial regime change will emerge or create new instability.
The Limits of Principle
Date: January 4, 2026
Summary: Michael David Cobb Bowen’s philosophical defense of the Venezuela operation against constitutional critics. He argues that fixed legal principles are insufficient to direct moral national actions, using the Underground Railroad as an example where Christian heroes violated constitutional law to free slaves. Bowen contends that abstractions and frameworks fail in complex reality, comparing attempts to codify human behavior to failed AI programming. He concludes that putting a tyrant in custody serves beneficial purposes beyond written law, celebrating Maduro’s capture while acknowledging the limits of principled constraints on moral action.
THE MEDVEDEV COROLLARY
Date: January 5, 2026
Summary: Extensive analysis by Shanaka Anslem Perera of how the Venezuela operation represents a fundamental shift in international relations. The document examines the technical details of Operation Absolute Resolve, including the failure of Russian air defense systems and cyber-kinetic warfare capabilities. It argues that Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that “only nuclear arsenal” provides reliable protection reveals the collapse of conventional deterrence. The analysis suggests the operation triggered a “phase transition” where threshold states will pursue nuclear weapons as the only guarantee against American power projection, fundamentally reshaping global security architecture.
The Real Reason Why the US Overthrew Venezuela
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: The Minority Report’s analysis connecting the Venezuela operation to dollar hegemony threats. The author traces how China’s November 2025 bond issue, oversubscribed 30-fold at yields lower than U.S. Treasuries, demonstrated the viability of alternatives to dollar dominance. Venezuela’s oil sales to China in yuan, combined with BRICS partnership, represents an existential threat to the petrodollar system that has funded American power since 1973. The piece argues the operation follows a pattern of removing leaders who abandon dollar-based oil transactions, positioning Venezuela as ground zero in the fight to preserve America’s “exorbitant privilege.”
The Venezuela Story - PDVSA
Date: November 26, 2020
Summary: Michael David Cobb Bowen’s earlier analysis of Venezuela’s economic collapse through PDVSA’s mismanagement. The document explains how unsustainable gasoline subsidies (5 cents/gallon) required government payments to refineries, creating unsustainable fiscal burdens. When Chavez replaced PDVSA executives with cronies and fired striking workers, technical expertise was lost. The 2015 oil price collapse from $115 to $53/barrel destroyed the economic model based on export revenues during peak oil years. The piece traces how socialist policies, not ideology alone, created the conditions for Venezuela’s economic disaster and mass emigration.
The Venezuelan Oil Narative is PURE THEATRE
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Tracy’s detailed analysis arguing the real Pentagon motivation was critical minerals and adversary expulsion, not oil. The piece contends Venezuelan oil doesn’t meet Iraq 2003’s strategic threshold—production collapsed to 700,000 barrels/day vs Iraq’s 3+ million potential. Instead, the timing corresponds to Pentagon’s $7.5 billion critical minerals allocation, Chinese export restrictions, and the convergence of all three major U.S. adversaries in Venezuela. China controls mineral extraction sites essential to weapons manufacturing, Iran operates drone production facilities within strike range of Florida, and Russia maintains military advisors—creating an intolerable combined threat requiring kinetic response.
Thoughts on the Capture of Maduro and Trump’s Attack on Venezuela
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Legal scholar Ilya Somin’s analysis acknowledging Maduro deserved capture but arguing the operation violated constitutional requirements for congressional authorization. While supporting punishment for Maduro’s massive human rights violations, Somin contends the extensive airstrikes and ground insertion exceeded presidential authority, unlike the 1989 Panama precedent where Noriega declared war first. He criticizes Trump’s continued illegal boat strikes while giving Maduro due process, and questions whether beneficial regime change will emerge given the socialist dictatorship’s continued control of military and security services.
Trump speaks to Venezuelans
Date: January 4, 2026
Summary: David Josef Volodzko’s analysis of Trump’s press conference announcing Maduro’s capture, comparing the operation to Batman’s extraction of Lau from Hong Kong in The Dark Knight. While acknowledging international law concerns, Volodzko argues Maduro was among Latin America’s worst living dictators, responsible for millions of refugees and deaths. The piece examines evidence of Maduro directing Tren de Aragua’s transnational terrorism, including sex trafficking and assassinations abroad, potentially constituting acts of war. Volodzko celebrates the operation as liberation of 30 million people while addressing concerns about American imperialism and legal precedents.
Trump Was Skeptical of Ousting Maduro—Until He Wasn’t
Date: January 4, 2026
Summary: Wall Street Journal investigation revealing Trump’s evolving Venezuela policy from diplomatic deals to military action. Initially preferring negotiations for oil access and deportation cooperation, Trump shifted after Marco Rubio and other hawks emphasized Maduro’s drug trafficking indictments. The timeline shows successful early diplomatic wins including hostage releases and resumed deportation flights, but mounting pressure from advisers who stressed narco-terrorism charges. The final decision came in December after multiple exile offers were rejected, with detailed planning including intelligence penetration, military rehearsals, and CIA covert operations authorization preceding the January operation.
Venezuela’s Amuay Refinery Under Scrutiny After Deadly Blaze
Date: August 31, 2012
Summary: National Geographic coverage of the devastating August 25, 2012 explosion at Venezuela’s Amuay refinery that killed 42 people and injured hundreds more. The predawn blast destroyed hundreds of homes and became the world’s deadliest refinery accident in 15 years. The brief article notes that fires were extinguished four days after the incident, but questions about the cause remained under investigation. This historical incident reflects the broader infrastructure deterioration that has characterized Venezuela’s oil industry under Chavez and Maduro’s management.
Venezuela’s Oill Infrastructure and Shadow Fleet
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Twitter thread by Rory Johnston highlighting Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and shadow fleet operations. The discussion includes references to a map showing Venezuelan oil facilities and transportation routes, with TankerTrackers noting 120 dark fleet tankers operating since mid-2020 to evade sanctions. The brief exchange touches on offshore production capabilities and includes a cultural reference to Enya’s “Orinoco Flow.” This represents the ongoing challenge of tracking Venezuelan oil exports that circumvent international sanctions through opaque shipping networks.
What Just Happened: Really?
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Ken Robinson analyzes the U.S. military operation against Venezuela as a strategic response to the convergence of great-power competition, transnational crime, and military threats. The essay details how Venezuelan territory became a sanctuary for Russian, Chinese, and Iranian networks under Maduro’s criminalized state. The operation demonstrated the failure of Chinese and Russian air defense systems and represented a textbook application of U.S. joint special operations doctrine. Robinson argues this wasn’t about oil but about preventing a foreign-militarized criminal platform in the Western Hemisphere.
Whose Hemisphere?
Date: January 3, 2026
Summary: Michael David Cobb Bowen’s commentary on American leadership in the Western Hemisphere, defending the Venezuela operation as necessary action against corruption. Drawing from personal experience with Venezuelan IT colleagues who fled economic collapse, Bowen argues Americans have ignored gang influence and regional degradation too long. He criticizes both pacifist restraint and elite opposition to regime change, advocating for principled action against narco-states. The piece connects Venezuela to broader hemispheric security concerns, suggesting stronger alliances with Brazil, Mexico, and other regional partners while countering Chinese Belt and Road influence and supporting legitimate democratic transitions.
Reference compiled: January 6, 2026
Source: S3 bucket mdcb-public-data/vz
Thank you for sharing all of this!
Just a quick note of thanks—I've got some reading to do...