One thing I’ve learned about American journalism and opinion making in the 21st century is that it has absolutely no patience or courage. It harped on what the President could do in his first 100 days, and today cannot believe that he took the American war machine from full stomp to full stop in less than four months. Ever since the evacuation of the Al-Rasheed Hotel, stalwart American journalists like Peter Arnett have been absent from war zones. As much as Americans whined about the Janjaweed Militia, our investment in protection of those poor Christians without Second Amendment rights was zero. Meanwhile at the same time South Sudan was raising its flag American citizens blithely engaged in planking, wearing Silly Bandz and following Jersey Shore.
This morning the President elaborated a bit on the current ceasefire, at which critics jumped on the Administration’s case about a lack of victory with a select set of birdshot pellets that missed the bullseye in the fog of war. It sounds all quite conspiratorial when I hear critics of this sort counting meters of sea ice which they claim to disprove or prove something dire which takes decades to manifest or not. Like watching street protesters who expect instant justice while breaking into government buildings the madness is hard for to take, but evidently not hard enough for other Americans to swallow. No patience, no peace of mind. There’s my picket sign, but I’m not out there on the line. The shotgun spread of talking points is not pointed in my direction. Then again, my birds are in low earth orbit.
For me, the basic question is this, and it’s a long-term question. How easy is it for the West to be a better friend to the Iranian people than Putin and Xi are? How simple would it be to send some of our best capitalists over there and start up some contracts. Clearly our NGOs go everywhere on the planet that their dubiously inconspicuous masters want them. So how easy or difficult is it for the Persian on the street to start getting some American business? Or have we completely forgotten what MacArthur did in Japan?
Middle East Airlift
This is a kind of apples and oranges comparison, but since nobody is putting front page news on what’s going on in Venezuela it’s hard for me to say. That America knows how to drop military and economic bombs (and hell, even Hershey bars) on foreign countries is without question. Count me as one of those Americans who would rather have healthy trade with sovereign nations than an undifferentiated mass of immigrants brain draining their own countries and pumping up remittance traffic. As quiet as its kept, immigrant welfare fraud is going to backlash something awful here amongst the wilding generation. Don’t forget I told you so.
All of the countries that Iran bombed for housing Americans and our military assets are going to want to be repaired. Nobody as smart as Marco Rubio is going to let that go unaddressed. Yes of course he’s got an eye on Cuba. Real geopolitics is in the mix here, and that’s what interests me. War and peace, billions and lives on the line. Not our own idiocracy.
By my own crude calculations we have attrited the Iranian war machine down to a nub. But a one armed man can still carry a gun. So as expert Eliot Cohen at the latest School of War Podcast says, Iran is still lethal, but certainly less lethal than they were a year ago, and much less catastrophically deadly than they were two years ago.
Here’s the compressed version. Worth noting up front: direct, openly acknowledged strikes on Iranian soil are essentially a 2024-and-after phenomenon — before that it was a shadow war via proxies and strikes in Syria.
April 2024 — Israel hits Iran’s consulate annex in Damascus, killing senior IRGC commanders; Iran responds with a historic volley of over 300 missiles and drones (Operation True Promise). Israel answers with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19.
October 2024 — After Israel assassinates Iranian and Hezbollah figures, Iran launches a large ballistic-missile barrage at Israel (Oct 1); Israel retaliates Oct 26 with direct airstrikes on Iranian air-defense and missile-production sites (”Days of Repentance”).
June 13–24, 2025 — the “Twelve-Day War.” Israel launched attacks targeting nuclear facilities, military sites, and regime infrastructure under Operation Rising Lion, including assassinations of IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists; Iran retaliated with 500-plus ballistic missiles over 12 days (True Promise III).
June 21–22, 2025 — first direct US strike. In Operation Midnight Hammer, US Central Command deployed seven B-2 stealth bombers plus F-22 and F-35 fighters against the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites, after which a Trump-brokered ceasefire took effect on June 24, 2025.
February 28, 2026 — the current war. The US and Israel launched major coordinated attacks on Iran; Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, Iran retaliated with missile strikes against American bases across the region, and the conflict broadened across the Gulf. This is the ongoing “2026 Iran war.”
June 2026 (now) — roughly 110 days in, with a tentative US-Iran deal just announced and expected to be formalized this week, even as Israeli operations in Lebanon continue.
Of course it’s not over until it’s over. So the immediate question for political skeptics is are we better off than we were two years ago. Well that depends upon how much one seeks to defend the provisions of the JCPOA. So if we went back to something like the JCPOA what was the war all about? The answer is “something less than perfection, what do you expect from Trump?” I’ll listen to the attitude on that if I happen to get into a conversation this week.
While I’m not completely updating my Iran portfolio today, here are the JCPOA details. As soon as we get some serious journalism we can put numbers on the attrition and compare. The older I get, the more upset I become that I don’t have more PhD friends. I didn’t expect that it would be so difficult.
The Iranian Nuclear Annex
As a geopolitical neocon blogger, I had a burning interest in seeing the nuclear ambitions of Islamic Republic of Iran suppressed and defeated as a right of center blogger. Beyond that, I’m one of those people who witnessed firsthand the anger and frustration of Persians who came to Los Angeles after that country’s revolution. Both as a college freshman…
Grace & Power
But returning to my serious premise I am prompted to consider several things. The first is my prediction that our special forces might take Kharg Island. I’m not the only one. We did nothing of the sort, although I’m sure there are cookbooks for that. The second was that the blockade, if it lasted long enough, would cause the EU to suffer and perhaps compel them to send some NATO. Well they haven’t suffered enough and there’s no predicting them. Still, one cannot forget the contrasting positive Japanese Prime Minister’s reaction (March 2026). Opposing Trump is our domestic prerogative but that doesn’t make for a global strategy. Yet I’m sure I wasn’t the only one hearing that Trump is kissing the respective butts of Xi and Putin. I truly want the IRGC put down, how do you thread the needle of doing that while keeping their allies placated?
Then the whole opening of this essay occurred to me. Our enemy is the Iranian mullahs and that whole nasty Islamist blot on civilized life. While it has been proven that the UK can be entirely blind in its suicidal empathy which is even more corrupt and stupid than Brexit, at some point the USA needs to be gracious. The USA needs to be gracious to China because manufacturing, to Russia because European energy, and in general to the Gulf States to Israel and to the Iranian people because grace is the proper attitude of a nation with confident power. Ten years from now, the fact will remain that we didn’t destroy the civilian infrastructure of Venezuela, of Gaza, of Lebanon, of Syria, nor of Iran. We mitigated the IRGC’s ability to do that to our friends in the Middle East.
We can afford to be bellicose. We can afford to be gracious. We can do both under the same Administration. This is being demonstrated. I guess we just have to do it faster.
Outside of that, there isn’t much to say, except for Sarah Paine’s refresher on Maritime Power. Which underscores why it’s reasonable to hold off from bashing Russia over Ukraine while [secretly] pushing the EU to step up and for us to do some [secretive] technology & tactical exchange with Ukraine.
No land war in Asia. Go Navy!