The End of the Islamic Bomb

Probably maybe.

At some point, whether or not you believe in 'diversity', nations are at liberty to choose their own rhetoric and philosophical orientation. Their polities will choose their friends and enemies. So I don't think it is far-fetched to recognize the matters of allies and and axes. It is inevitable that there will be most favored nations and least favored nations. If 'Death to America' is an international reality then it's not hard to see that Iran is a pariah state in the eyes of America. It is one that is fundamentally distrusted and hostile to the US at whatever level of consistency is identifiable.

What few of us can see is the comprehensive intents and operations of a national government that is philosophically Islamic. How much 'Dar al-harb' is America in that philosophical view? How much are Sunni intentions material? These are not secrets, but nor are they discussed on a regular basis in American media, except more recently when we have seen subversion and violence on our streets by those 'in solidarity' with Islamists. In short, we can get bogged down in details given what ability we have to quantify all of that, but the geopolitical red line we have had for a generation is No Islamic Bomb.

What kind of true mutually beneficial alliance can be made between America and Iran? The practical answer is minimal and marginal as [endlessly] negotiated by powerless intermediaries. Many people have weighed in with the initial reaction that regardless of the fact that nuclear fission is a dual use technology, we have as much chance changing Iran's energy policy as we do changing China's construction policy. The red line stands.

I don't think despite all the sad and happy talk, that crashing all of Iran's nuclear capabilities is going to change the direction of the Islamic republic. Mullahs will be mullahs and there is no probability of kintic conflict changing those minds. It won't be until thousands of American businesses are integrated as vital interests with those of Iran that a genuine organic process of change can happen. I believe there is something about the very nature of Iran’s particular Islamic republic that makes such relationships impossible. So I take this destruction for its discrete practical benefit. We have kicked Iran's nuclear can far down the road, perhaps for good. Call Stuxnet phase one, and I jumped for joy. I hope this is the final chapter. Somebody needs to make a Downfall video. (And somebody has)

But Pakistan
The Pakistanis already have an Islamic Bomb. Begun in the era of ‘Atoms for Peace’, we jumpstarted our friends in Pakistan. Now we in America barely have atoms for our peaceful selves. The half life of that initiative has decayed it to zero. I understand there’s a smoldering in Georgia and that Bill Gates has an idea or two. Yay Georgia, but seriously?

Pakistan’s arsenal is pointed south at India and those two have managed to keep their antagonisms to a dull roar. It’s reasonable to assume that both India and Pakistan are willing, as the saying goes, keep it in their pants. In fact, so Putin’s Russia has proven with it’s nth war with Ukraine. While the Russkies are hostile as hell to their Muslim neighbors it doesn’t so provoke Turkey to play the kind of shadow proxy game in their region that Iran plays in its. Or perhaps it’s better to say that since Turkey is NATO, the US is happy to turn a blind eye to its hostility to our old Kurdish friends. We don’t really care so much.

If the Saudis got the Bomb, which they certainly could afford to buy, I can’t see a reason for them to use it, or even pretend. There’s something about prosperity that have softened the Saudis in a dissolute kind if Westernized flavor. The same is true for the Emirates. The US is already so deeply enmeshed with Saudi business that, with the strength of the emerging triangle of relations between us, them and Israel, the Middle East is transforming substantially. Yemen’s Houthis have learned this the hard way recently. So if anyone thinks a bit beyond the media horizon, the US is getting its way over there.

Qatari Influencers
That’s all I know. I can’t quite quantify what that influence might be or in which direction, but they are the object of stereotypical scorn with about as much frequency as George Soros, but I’m not certain if it’s from the same political quarters. My willful ignorance of political partisanship has left me a bit handicapped in that regard.

Beneath the threshold of the deployment of boots on the ground and destruction of air defenses, I honestly don’t pay so much attention to what’s going on over there wherever there may be. But I do say this, with some seriousness. If your country can host a Formula One Grand Prix, you’re in the right neighborhood. It’s expensive, it takes intelligence, it takes guts and it has a splendid history. What’s not to internationally like? Better than than Cannes, for my non-existent dollar.

You might ask why I might take such a flippant attitude. Because lives are always involved. Well, not really, but before I jettison Islamic geopolitics, let me state for the record that there seems to be no accounting for the Arab Spring, the rearguard axis of Isis in Syria or the future of Lebanon in our domestic new reporting. In other words, so few credibly serious discussions are happening left, right and center, that I have to be dismissive. We don’t have beef with Jordan or Algeria. All of our outrage at Libya is spent. Russian expense in Syria attritted their capabilities. Ask our American search engines about ‘Arab League Statements’ and you’ll get a sparse and practically null set.

Insurance
What I am more certain of, is that there will always be smart money and there will always be foolishness. The position Americans have and take for granted has a great deal to do with our proximity to the risks we can take because of the literal insurance industries we have. Prudence would suggest that most everything outside of that umbrella is dangerous territory for the American middle class. Marinate on that for a minute. What do we do as a Peasant polity but demand more safe spaces? Driving, mortgaging, healing, banking, traveling, all are insurable. Outside of that are the known and enumerated Acts of God. Not for the faint of heart. And yet, shit happens.

The US military, despite its top-heavy cruft and oligopoly of prime contractors, was minimally visionary enough to give us the B2 stealth bomber which was deftly deployed in one of its most intricate and extensive missions. It was an eventuality we were insured for, the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, more than 40 years in the making.

What other insurances do we have that might cover our middle class relativisms and insouciance? This is something we Peasants need to consider at length. Get out your LLMs and keep asking gigantic stupid questions like that, because we are deep into the zone of whole of society information warfare. I’m literally wanting to buy the t-shirt that reads ‘Make Orwell Fiction Again’.

I am tending to think that Hegseth and Cain are being forthcoming, but surely the BDA will be out there in a month or two. All of our mileages will vary.

Regime Change
Over the weekend I wrote that in response to the blather that Iran still has uranium, that after this bout, Sonny Liston was still a boxer.

Muhammad Ali did not kill Liston, he negotiated his complete and total surrender in the ring in the most convincing way possible. The conflict was inevitable. Both parties wanted to be the undisputed champion against all comers. There can be only one.

I don’t believe in regime change. I don’t believe that people, economies, governments, business arrangements or militaries are fungible. The planet is not a blank slate vulnerable to the wishful thinking or hallucinatory pronouncements of any sort of intelligence, be it political, artificial or ideological. Large things on the ground have to move, and very few things move quickly but our rumors, lies and blah blah blah.

In America, we’re accustomed to desiring to have a sufficient number of answers to proxy our opinion into some political recipe to be served and discarded. But I’ve recently heard that young people are beginning to desire longer forms of undigested discussion. Good for them. Lucky for us if the desire continues.

I have wanted riddance of the Islamic Revolution nuclear program for quite a while, as I recently wrote.

Do I feel confident? About the same. Do I feel sure? These are the days of supreme over ambition. So I’m expecting the same parties to pursue the same aims in a moment of opportunism. It’s rather amusing that the President expressed his f-bomb frustration in what is obviously a thwarting of his very American-like desire to have geopolitical answers now.

Also there’s this Stoic response.